Tag: statistics

Management Books

• Quality Improvement Through Planned Experimentation: 2nd Edition by Thomas Nolan, Lloyd P. Provost, Ron Moen
  An excellent handbook on how to use experiments to learn about your organization and how to use that knowledge to improve your organization. The book integrates Dr. Deming's ideas and design of experiments thinking. Forward by W. Edwards Deming. 3rd edition is on the way.

• Statistics for Experimenters: An Introduction to Design, Data Analysis, and Model Building by George E. P. Box, William G. Hunter, J. Stuart Hunter
  See new Statistics for Experimenters - Second Edition
  Or view this classic text used widely in universities and corporations for over 20 years.

• Design and Analysis of Experiments: 5th edition by Douglas C. Montgomery
  Covering factorial and fractional factorial design, experiments with random factors, response surface methods, experiments with mixtures, and methods for process robustness studies.

• Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement by George E. P. Box, Norman R. Draper
  Evolutionary Operation (EVOP), is a simple but powerful statistical tool with wide application in business. What originally motivated the introduction of EVOP, was the idea that the widespread and daily use of simple statistical design and analysis during routine production by process operatives themselves could reap enormous additional rewards.

• Collected Works of George E.P. Box: by George E. P. Box
  Out of Print

• Collected Works of George E.P. Box: Volume 2 by George E. P. Box
  

• Short Run SPC: by Donald J. Wheeler
  

• Understanding Statistical Process Control: 2nd edition by Donald J. Wheeler, David S. Chambers
  Describes how to use count data effectively, the right way to assess process capability and the right and wrong ways of computing control chart limits. Provides information on flow charts and pareto charts.

• SPC at the Esquire Club: by Donald J. Wheeler, Kaz Koike
  A unique and interesting case study. Another example of how versatile Quality tools are. To us this is one of the best illustrations that the often heard "it can't work here" is most likely an inaccurate statement.

• Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos by Donald J. Wheeler
  An excellent guide to what you must understand about variation to effectively improve your organization.

• The New Economics: For Industry, Government, Education by W. Edwards Deming
  Second Edition (reprint). The best of Deming's books for learning about his system for management. Packed with great thoughts but not as easy to read as the best books. This is a great book, but often it is best for managers already committed to finding new ideas.

• Six Sigma Beyond the Factory Floor:: Deployment Strategies for Financial Services, Health Care, and the Rest of the Real Economy by Ronald D. Snee, Roger W. Hoerl
  Recommended. The book is authored by two of the leading practictioners and they do an excellent job of providing their experience and insight on implimenting Six Sigma.

• Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation, and Discovery by George E. P. Box, William G. Hunter, J. Stuart Hunter
  Second Edition of this classic.

• Implementing Six Sigma: Smarter Solutions Using Statistical Methods, 2nd Edition by Forrest W. Breyfogle III
  A very good overview of Six Sigma - our choice for those interested in six sigma. We also suggest Statistics for Experimenters as a resource.

• Management Matters: Building Enterprise Capability by John Hunter
  The book provides an overview for viewing management as a system. It is largely based on those of Dr. Deming, along with natural outgrowths or extensions of his ideas such as lean manufacturing and agile software development. To achieve great results there must be a continual focus on achieving results today and building enterprise capacity to maximize results over the long term. Managers have many management concepts, pactices and tools available to help them in this quest. The challenge is to create and continually build and improve a management system for the enterprise that leads to success. The book provides a framework for management thinking. With this framework the practices and tools can be applied to build enterprise capacity and improve efficiency and effectiveness.

• The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't by Nate Silver
  Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. His blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, is one of the nation’s most influential sources of political forecasting. Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too.

• An Accidental Statistician: The Life and Memories of George E. P. Box by George E. P. Box
  From early childhood to a celebrated career in academia and industry, acclaimed statistician George E.P. Box offers personal insights and a first-hand account of his professional accomplishments in this insightful memoir. It features thoughts from more than a dozen researchers and practitioners on how Box shaped their careers; previously unpublished photos from Box’s personal collection; and Forewords written by two of Box’s closest colleagues and confidants. An Accidental Statistician is a charming, intimate account of a great intellect’s life that will appeal to math and engineering professionals.

Management Articles

• 101 Ways to Design an Experiment, or Some Ideas About Teaching Design of Experiments by William G. Hunter
  A great article sharing ideas on teaching and learning about Design of Experiments (DoE), a powerful and greatly underutilized tool. 6 simga efforts have greatly increased the use of DoE.

• What to Measure and How by Barba B. Affourtit
  From the article: We need to examine our management information systems for utility, and discard measurements that are not used for decision-making.

• Statistics and Reality by David Kerridge, Sarah Kerridge
  "W. Edwards Deming distinguished between two types of statistical study, which he called 'Enumerative' and 'Analytic'. This sounds theoretical, and it is: but it is also a very practical."

• William G. Hunter: An Innovator and Catalyst for Quality Improvement by George E. P. Box
  This is the text of a talk given at the Speakers' Dinner at the Sixth Annual William G. Hunter Conference on Quality in Madison, Wisconsin, on June 2, 1993. In it, George Box recalls Bill Hunter's pivotal role in the birth of the quality movement in the c

• The Next 25 Years in Statistics by William Hill, William G. Hunter
  (with contributions by Joseph W. Duncan, A. Blanton Godfrey, Brian L. Joiner, Gary C. McDonald, Charles G. Pfeifer, Donald W. Marquardt, and Ronald D. Snee). A transformation of the American style of management has already begun; in order for it to succee

• A Study of Statistical Process Control by Henry R. Neave
  

• Development of the Theory of Experimental Design by R.A. Fisher
  Proceedings of the International Statistical Conferences, 1947.

• Integrating Experimental Design and Statistical Control for Quality Improvement by Harriet Black Nembhard, Rene alverde-Ventura
  "As a result of a successful case study, we advance a methodology for combining design of experiments (DOE) and cumulative score (Cuscore) charts to control and monitor an industrial process subject to a feedback control scheme. We use DOE to screen out the most important variable from a larger set of variables."

• What Can You Find Out From 8 and 16 Experimental Runs? by George E. P. Box
  Includes two articles on options for designed experiments. Design of Experiments is a tools used heavily in Six Sigma programs.

• Teaching Engineers Experimental Design With a Paper Helicopter by George E. P. Box
  How a helicopter (made in with a regular sheet of paper) can be used to teach principles of experimental design including - conditions for validity of experimentation, randomization, blocking, the use of factorial and fractional factorial designs...

• Introduction to Statistical Experimental Design by Johan Trygg, Svante Wold
  "Statistical experimental design, a.k.a. design of experiments (DoE) is the methodology of how to conduct and plan experiments in order to extract the maximum amount of information in the fewest number of runs"

• Managing Our Way to Economic Success: Two Untapped Resources by William G. Hunter
  "American organizations could compete much better at home and abroad if they would learn to tap the potential information inherent in all processes and the creativity inherent in all employees."

• Teaching Quality Improvement by Quality Improvement in Teaching by Ian Hau
  This paper describes how students and the instructor worked as a team to improve the quality of teaching in a class. The defect rate dropped from 78% to 22% for computer instruction, 56% to 8% for blackboard presentation and 82% to 20% for overhead presentation.

• Using Design of Experiments as a Process Road Map by Davis Balestracci
  "The current design of experiments (DOE) renaissance seems to favor factorial designs and/or orthogonal arrays as a panacea. In my 25 years as a statistician, my clients have always found much more value in obtaining a process "road map" by generating the inherent response surface in a situation."

• Statistics as a Catalyst to Learning by Scientific Method by George E. P. Box
  Explores the implications raised when Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is considered, as was originally intended as a statistical technique for the catalysis of iterative learning.

• Combinatorial Software Testing by Rick Kuhn, Raghu Kacker, Yu Lei, Justin Hunter
  While the most basic form of combinatorial testing, pairwise, is well established, and adoption by software testing practitioners continues to increase, industry usage of these methods remains patchy at best. However, the additional training required is

• Dangers of Forgetting the Proxy Nature of Data by John Hunter
  "We use data to act as a proxy for some results of the system. Often people forget that the desired end result is not for the number to be improved but for the situation to be improved. We hope, if the measure improves the situation will have improved..."

• Metrics and Software Development by John Hunter
  "I find looking at outcome measures (to measure overall effectiveness) and process measures (for viewing specific parts of the system 'big picture') the most useful strategy. The reason for process measures is not to improve those results alone. But those process measures can be selected to measure key processes within the system..."

• Actionable Metrics by John Hunter
  "Metrics are valuable when they are actionable. Think about what will be done if certain results are shown by the data. If you can't think of actions you would take, it may be that metric is not worth tracking."

• Robust Experimental Strategies for Improving Upstream Productivity by Ronald D. Snee
  Two methods can be used to increase the speed of upstream development, which in turn speeds up the development of process understanding: * using Design of Experiments (DOE)-based strategies to design, analyze, and interpret experiments, resulting in getting better information in a timely fashion * using Lean principles to streamline the availability of information, materials, equipment, measurements, and personnel for the experimental process, thereby accelerating the flow of the experimental process.

• What Did Deming Really Say? by Davis Balestracci
  "People don’t need statistics; they need to know how to solve their problems. All that’s needed is a few simple tools and a working knowledge of variation to be able to distinguish between common and special causes. Only 1–2 percent of people need advanced statistical knowledge... 'Prediction is the problem, whether we are talking about applied science, research and development, engineering, or management in industry, education, or government,' [Deming] says. 'The question is, 'What do the data tell us? How do they help us to predict?'"

• An Interview with Donald Wheeler by Donald J. Wheeler
  "All profound ideas are timeless. While the details may change, the underlying principles remain the same. Deming’s fundamental ideas came, in part, from his association with Shewhart and his concept of an operational definition... For years I observed managers telling Deming all the good things that they were going to do and heard him respond with one of two questions: 'By what method?' or 'How will you know?' It is just that basic. Until you can answer these two questions, all you have is wishful thinking."

• Robust Experimental Strategies for Improving Upstream Productivity by Ronald D. Snee
  The solution to this problem is to use Lean principles to streamline the processes and procedures used to do the experimental work. Eliminating complexity and wasted time and effort results in experimentation being speeded up and scientists having more time to do creative work.

• Variation, So Meaningful Yet So Misunderstood by Lynda Finn
  "assuming an issue is the result of a special cause will send you on a hunt for the special cause. Walter Shewhart and Deming proved that special cause thinking will lead you astray most of the time. So, if in your company there is often a search for whom or what is to blame before questioning whether the problem is built into the current processes and systems, then you too are likely wasting time and misidentifying causes."

• Working with Rare Events by Donald J. Wheeler
  "Whenever the average count per time period drops below 1.00 you are working with rare events. ... When this happens you should shift from counting the events per time period and instead measure the area of opportunity between the rare events. Here you cease to get a value every time period, and instead get a value every time you have an event."

• An Accidental Statistician by George E. P. Box, R.A. Fisher
  "At one point I was having trouble with a statistical problem. A very senior scientist suggested that I contact R. A. Fisher, who asked me to come and see him. The Army did not know how to send a sergeant to see a professor, so they made a railway warrant that said I was taking a horse to Cambridge. It was a beautiful day. Fisher said "let's go and sit under that tree in the orchard, I'll look up the probits and you look up the reciprocals". The specific problem was soon solved and set me thinking about estimating data transformations."

• Netflix Recommendations: Beyond the 5 stars
  "We have adapted our personalization algorithms to this new scenario in such a way that now 75% of what people watch is from some sort of recommendation. We reached this point by continuously optimizing the member experience and have measured significant gains in member satisfaction whenever we improved the personalization ... Our business objective is to maximize member satisfaction and month-to-month subscription retention, which correlates well with maximizing consumption of video content. We therefore optimize our algorithms to give the highest scores to titles that a member is most likely to play and enjoy."

• Why I dislike the name Six Sigma by Rafael Aguayo
  "Lack of management appreciation of the need for participation. Deming emphasized joy in work, teamwork and listening to your people. This seems to be totally lacking in Six Sigma. In fact major SS practitioners emphasize practices that will destroy teamwork, company cohesiveness and pride. ... Failure to appreciate the company as a system. Making improvements to one variable, such as material costs, can lead to higher labor costs. Lowering costs in one department can lead to higher costs overall for the company. These mistakes can be avoided if one understands the systemic nature of a company."

• The World Is Calling; Should We Answer? by Roger Hoerl
  Annual Deming lecture to the American Statistical Association. "Snee and I defined the term 'statistical engineering' as the study of how to best use statistical concepts, methods, and tools and integrate them with information technology and other relevant sciences to generate improved results."

• Transcript of Speech by W. Edwards Deming to Japanese Leaders in 1950 by W. Edwards Deming
  "The knowledge and brains applied to statistics by the Japanese are an essential national resource; it is important in the same way as water power, forests, and railroads. And that statistical knowledge, much like water power, is not useful at all unless it has an impact on work opportunity and work. With water power, if one were to get rid of turbines and generator machines, no power would emerge."

• Special Cause Signal Isn’t Proof A Special Cause Exists by John Hunter
  The control chart is a good way to keep us focused on common cause thinking for improvement. It is also very useful in flagging when it is time to immediately start using special cause thinking (since timing is key to effective special cause thinking)...

• On Probability As a Basis For Action by W. Edwards Deming
  "The aim here is to try to contribute something to the improvement of statistical practice. The basic supposition here is that any statistical investigation is carried out for purposes of action. New knowledge modifies existing knowledge. " Deming distinguishes between enumerative studies and analytic studies. An enumerative study has for its aim an estimate of the number of units of a frame that belong to a specified class. An analytic study has for its aim a basis for action on the cause-system or the process, in order to improve product of the future.

Management Web Sites and Resources

• W. Edwards Deming Institute by W. Edwards Deming
  Founded by W. Edwards Deming the institute carries forward his philosophy. The site includes information on the institutes annual conferences and offers newsletters online.

• Curious Cat Management Improvement Articles by John Hunter
  Hundreds of useful management articles hand selected to help managers improve the performance of their organization. Sorted by topic including: Deming, lean manufacturing, six sigma, continual improvement, innovation, leadership, managing people, software development, psychology and systems thinking.

• Curious Cat Management Improvement Blog by John Hunter
  Blog by John Hunter on many topics to to improve the management of organizations, including: Deming, lean manufacturing, agile software development, evidence based decision making, customer focus, innovation, six sigma, systems thinking, leadership, psychology, ...

• Smarter Solutions by Forrest W. Breyfogle III
  Consultant focused on six sigma improvement with articles available on various topics.

• Center for Quality and Productivity Improvement by George E. P. Box, William G. Hunter
  Founded in 1985 by George E.P. Box and the William Hunter at the University of Wisconsin - Madison. The technical report series is one of the best online management resources with reports authors including: George Box, W. Edwards Deming, Peter Scholtes, Kaoru Ishikawa, William Hunter, Gipsie Ranney and Brian Joiner.

• ASQ Statistics Division
  Membership organization seeking to advance data-driven decision making through statistical thinking. The William G. Hunter Award is presented annually in order to encourage the creative development and application of statistical techniques to problem-solving in the quality field. Named in honor of the Statistics Division’s founding chairman.

• ASA Quality and Productivity Section
  Membership organization focused on promoting quality and productivity through the development, teaching, and proper application of statistical thinking and tools.

• Associates in Process Improvement
  Consulting firm with Provost, Langley, Norman, Moen and Nolan. Authors of the excellent: Improvement Guide. Several very good articles on variation available on the site.

• Hexawise - Combinatorial Software Testing by Justin Hunter, John Hunter
  This blog, by Justin Hunter, is about efficient and effective software test design strategies, including pairwise and combinatorial methods that are gaining traction in the testing community.

• Statistics for Experimenters by George E. P. Box, J. Stuart Hunter, John Hunter, William G. Hunter
  Web site for the classic book on design of experiments. Includes a search engine for statistics sites for managers.

• Management and Leadership Quotes by John Hunter
  Quotes on management, business, leadership and many related topics: innovation, problems solving, change, statistics, planning, motivation, etc..

• PQ Systems
  Software and services provider related to SPC tools. The site includes a blog.

• Life and Legacy of William G. Hunter by John Hunter, William G. Hunter
  George Box, Stuart Hunter and Bill wrote what has become a classic text for experimenters in scientific and business circles, Statistics for Experimenters. Bill also was a leader in the emergence of the management improvement movement. George Box and Bill co-founded the Center for Quality and Productivity Improvement at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Bill Hunter was also the founding chair of the ASQ statistics division.

• Curious Cat Management Improvement Connections by John Hunter
  The aim of Curious Cat Management Improvement Connections is to contribute to the successful adoption of management improvement to advance joy in work and joy in life. The site provides connections to resources on a wide variety of management topics to help managers improve the performance of their organization. The site was started in 1996 by John Hunter.

• Effective Innovation by Bill Kappele
  Blog by Bill Kappele on design of experiments and statistics.

• Stats Made Easy by Mark Anderson
  Blog on design of experiments and statistics by principal at Stat-Ease.

• The W. Edwards Deming Institute Blog by John Hunter
  

• Science of Improvement by Cliff Norman